Although I didn't ever formally study stats at university, I like to think I have a reasonable appreciation of their simpler points.
So, I am always surprised at how ignorant most otherwise intelligent people seem to be about probabilities. BBC's Working Lunch featured a piece on the cost of insurance following the summer floods in Yorkshire. Rob Pittam spoke to Sheffield's Floods Czar (now there's a title to impress the girls with!).
As the Czar stood on the banks of the Don, pontificating about the high cost of business insurance after the floods, Rob replied that if he made a claim in his own insurance, he expected to pay higher premiums. Mr Czar said something along the lines of "Well, it's all based on the risk, isn't it? You could say that we're at less risk than other places because we had floods this year, so we probably won't get any more for another 100 years."
No, stupid. The actual risk is just the same every year.
I do wish interviewers would pick up on daft talk like this and correct it.
07/02/08 @ 17:43